December 10, 2018

Supportive Environment for Asset Returns

Find out what’s driving our 2019 Capital Markets Expectations on 52 asset and sub-asset classes.

Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions

Every year we review the data that drive capital markets—current valuation measures, historical risk premia, economic growth and inflation prospects—to help refine our forecasts. We update the models that we use and review their continued appropriateness. Crucially, our models are based on first-principle economic relationships, and reflect seasoned practitioner judgement.

This year we have included as part of every capital market forecast a measure of the expected volatility of that asset class, driven by long-term observed standard deviation of returns and correlations. Global central banks quantitative easing policies may have repressed both equity and bond market volatility over recent years. Our approach to modeling volatility avoids the recency bias of some alternative approaches and is particularly appropriate at a time when leading central banks are ending or reversing their asset purchase programs.

Our capital market expectations (CME) are designed to provide annualized return expectation over a longer-term horizon, typically viewed as being five to 10 years. Specifically, we calculate geometric mean return expectations over a seven-year period, which approximates the average length of a US business cycle.This length of horizon is especially relevant as we proceed towards the latter part of an unusually long economic expansion in the United States.

Our modelling approach is based on a blend of objective inputs, quantitative analysis and fundamental research. We call it “quantamental.” Underpinning these inputs are assumptions on the sustained growth rates that developed and emerging economies can expect to achieve and the level of price inflation that they will likely experience. This approach is forward-looking, rather than being based on historical average returns. This is especially important in an evolving macro-economic environment.

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We believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by continued global growth. Within both bonds and equities, we continue to forecast stronger return potential for emerging markets, over a seven-year investment horizon. With short-term interest rates and government bond term-premia remaining below historical averages, we see a lower performance potential from government bonds.

Our strongest convictions:

  • Moderate inflation helps sustain global growth
  • Global equities outperform global bonds
  • Emerging markets outperform developed markets