Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?

2018 Global Investment Outlook – Q2 Views

2018 was the year when volatility returned to global financial markets. Nonetheless, US economic growth managed to hit a four-year high in the second quarter, and the US equity market marched along to its longest bull run in post-WWII history. Our panel of senior investment leaders examine the evidence and offer their take on what and who might influence markets in the short and longer term.

Attractive Growth Prospects Ahead – Will Trade Disputes Create a Headwind?

Global GDP Growth Estimates (% Change Year Over Year)1
2018-2022

The global economy appears to be maintaining strength, with projected 2018 GDP growth expectations at 4.7% for major advanced economies and 7.3% for emerging market economies, and continuing at a strong pace through 2022. For the most part, the global economy is experiencing coordinated growth in a way we haven’t seen in a long time, if ever. Our senior investment leaders discuss how trade disputes may impact global growth.

U.S., China And Beyond: The Impact Of Trade On Global Growth

Date Recorded: April 12, 2018

Inflation Has Been Muted Despite A Strong Labor Market

US Personal Consumption Expenditures & US Unemployment Rate
December 31, 2007–February 28, 20182

The US market’s nine-year bull run is about to enter its 10th year accompanied by global growth and US unemployment at 4.1%. Our fixed income CIO shares his view on what factors may continue to be a restraining influence on inflation, while our head of equities suggests what a return to normalization may mean for valuations.

Inflation: Is It A Real Threat?

Date Recorded: April 12, 2018

The Hunt for Yield Has Steered Non-US Investors to the US Municipal Market…

Non-US Holdings of US Municipal Debt (Billions) & Share of Total US Municipal Debt Held Outside the US(%)3
2007–2017

…In Search of Higher Yields

Yields of Select US Municipal and Global Government Bonds4
As of March 31, 2018

*AAA Taxable

It’s been a challenging environment for investors seeking income and yield. Our panel weighs in on potential income opportunities and the demand outlook for the municipal bond market.

The Hunt For Income And Yield

Date Recorded: April 12, 2018

Watch the full-length video

Date Recorded: April 12, 2018

OUTLOOK CONTRIBUTORS

Resources

Read key insights from our investment leaders

Download

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility

Listen

PREVIOUS EDITION

Our Views for 2018