Insights and Advisor Resources

Private equity (PE) activity and exits show signs of picking up meaningfully in late 2025, despite lingering macro risks. The backlog of exit candidates will take time to work through and the outlook for large buyouts remains challenged, but opportunities look more attractive to us in the middle market and secondaries including single-asset continuation vehicles.

Tight spreads and a near-term excess of capital available to finance new PE deals lead to a cautious outlook. We continue to watch trends related to borrower health. Opportunities persist in real estate credit and other overlooked sub-sectors.

Private Real Estate: Property prices have stabilized after a multi-year decline, helping returns turn positive for the past few quarters. Transaction volume remains muted by historical standards, and it may take a few more quarters for sentiment to turn decisively positive, but we believe the longer-term outlook remains strong for key real estate sectors based on supply-demand imbalances.

Commodities: We have a constructive outlook, supported by positive roll yields, a weaker US dollar, and a resilient growth backdrop even in the face of tariff uncertainty. Momentum remains slightly positive at the index level as well. Gold retains structural support from elevated central-bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks, enhancing its traditional safe-haven role. Industrial metals appear well positioned as supply disruptions and infrastructure demand drive tighter balances. Meanwhile, energy markets face oversupply challenges, but we see this risk as largely priced in. We believe commodities can serve as a valuable allocation amid inflation uncertainty, particularly as goods prices remain sticky.

We are neutral the following strategies (in bold). Long/short equity managers face crowding and macro volatility, but those running lower net exposure may be able to capitalize on stock-level dispersion. Event-driven: activism outcomes have been inconsistent and vulnerable to downside risks; merger arbitrage and special situations appear to be improving. The global macro opportunity set remains attractive but economic trajectories appear increasingly two-sided. We favor commodity managers able to react in a dynamic environment, as dispersion should continue to present opportunities.