Insights and Advisor Resources

Private equity (PE) activity and exits show signs of picking up meaningfully in late 2025, despite lingering macro risks. The large backlog of exit candidates will take time to work through, and the outlook for large buyouts remains challenged, but opportunities are more attractive in the middle market and for secondaries including single-asset continuation vehicles.

Tight spreads and a near-term excess of capital available to finance new PE deals lead to a cautious outlook. We continue to watch trends related to borrower health. Opportunities persist in real estate credit and other overlooked sub-sectors.

Private Real Estate: Property prices have stabilized after a multi-year decline, helping returns turn positive for the past few quarters. Transaction volume remains muted by historical standards, and it may take a few more quarters for sentiment to turn decisively positive, but the longer-term outlook remains strong for key real estate sectors based on supply-demand imbalances.

Commodities: We have a constructive outlook, supported by positive roll yields, a weaker US dollar, and a resilient growth backdrop even in the face of tariff uncertainty. Gold retains structural support from elevated central-bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks, enhancing its safe-haven role. Industrial metals are positioned well as supply disruptions and infrastructure demand drive tighter balances. Meanwhile, energy markets face oversupply challenges, but we see this risk as largely priced in. Importantly, commodities can serve as a valuable allocation amid inflation uncertainty, particularly as goods prices remain sticky.

We are neutral long/short equity, with a preference for select international markets. We are neutral event-driven strategies, with a favorable view toward activism and special situations investing. The outlook for global macro managers appears positive, with central-bank policy changes and divergences taking a lead role in asset class returns. Our outlook for commodity managers is positive, especially for relative value approaches, as commodity relationships and price moves recover from recent bouts of volatility.