Skip to content

CONTRIBUTORS

Paul Mielczarski

Head of Global Macro Strategy & Portfolio Manager

At the start of the year, many investors predicted 2023 would be the year of the bond. Instead, while fixed income returns have struggled, United States equities have delivered double-digit returns. Stocks have benefited from conservative investor positioning at the end of 2022, a resilient US economy, and the expectation of an artificial intelligence-led investment boom.

Going forward we believe there is a compelling case for being long US fixed income over equities:

  1. The economic outlook for lower inflation and slower growth favors US bonds. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely done raising rates, and the focus will shift to an easing cycle. Core inflation momentum is converging toward the Fed’s 2% target. The labor market is rebalancing rapidly, due to lower labor demand and strong labor force growth, which should lead to lower wage growth. Global growth is rolling over, led by China and Europe. While US growth has been resilient so far, we expect growth to slow as monetary policy lags kick in.
  2. US agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) look particularly attractive to us, with a higher yield than equities. We believe US fixed income valuations overall are compelling versus equities. Within fixed income, our preference is for agency mortgage-backed securities, which offer similar yields to investment grade bonds but with no credit risk and lower duration risk. The chart below compares the forward-looking US equity earnings yield with the yield on agency MBS. For the first time in 20 years, mortgage bonds have a higher yield than stocks (see Exhibit 1).1

Exhibit 1: US Equity Earnings Yield vs. Agency Mortgage Bond Yield %, Shaded areas denote NBER-designated recessions, as of September 12, 2023.

Sources: Brandywine Global, Bloomberg (© 2023, Bloomberg Finance LP), Macrobond (© 2023). As of September 12, 2023. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.

  1. Lower volatility over equities also supports the case for bonds. Return volatility of mortgage bonds is roughly 50–75% lower than US equities,2 making them very attractive from a portfolio construction perspective. In the late 1990s, equity yields were significantly below MBS yields, and that episode ended badly for US equity investors. The chart below shows that the equity-to-MBS return ratio is already more than two standard deviations above its long-term trend (see Exhibit 2).3 The last time we saw that, we were at the peak of the equity market bubble in 2000.

Exhibit 2: US Equity to Agency Mortgage Bond Return Ratio Log, Shaded areas denote NBER-designated recessions, As of September 12, 2023.

Sources: Brandywine Global, Bloomberg (© 2023, Bloomberg Finance LP), Macrobond (© 2023). As of September 12, 2023. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.

  1. Bonds may provide advantages across a range of economic outcomes. Overall, we believe US fixed income offers investors attractive asymmetry across a range of economic scenarios. In a soft-landing scenario, we believe bonds are likely to generate decent returns, although they may struggle to outperform cash. In a deeper growth slowdown or financial shock, they could significantly outperform equities.

 

While US growth resilience has been surprising this year, it is important to recall that the full impact of the Fed’s cumulative, aggressive tightening is still to come. We see a variety of factors suggesting slower growth ahead and supporting our outlook for US bonds.

Endnotes:

  1. Exhibit 1 uses the S&P 500 Index to derive the earnings yield for US equities and the Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index to derive the Agency MBS yield.
  2. Source: Brandywine Global calculations using publicly available current economic data.
  3. Exhibit 2 uses the MSCI USA Index to derive the equity total return and the Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index to derive the Agency MBS total return.

Definitions:

A Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) is a type of asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage or collection of mortgages.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean or average.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad measure of US domestic large cap stocks. The 500 stocks in this capitalization-weighted index are chosen based on industry representation, liquidity, and stability.

The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the US market. With 628 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.

The Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon, and vintage.

 

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Commodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.

U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasuries, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.

IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton ("FT") has not independently verified, validated or audited such data.  Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

Franklin Templeton has environmental, social and governance (ESG) capabilities; however, not all strategies or products for a strategy consider “ESG” as part of their investment process.

Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

Issued in the U.S. by Franklin Templeton, One Franklin Parkway, San Mateo, California 94403-1906, (800) DIAL BEN/342-5236, franklintempleton.com. Investments are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed.

You need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view and print PDF documents. Download a free version from Adobe's website.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.