Emerging markets—leading not emerging

Emerging markets are continuing to evolve and change. They are transitioning from the world’s manufacturing hub to a global innovation hub. They are leading in key segments of the technology industry, the energy-transition value chain and automation.

Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor manufacturers, Chinese electric vehicle and battery suppliers, and Asian industrial-robot producers are positioned to potentially benefit from estimated USD1.3 trillion wave of investment by hyperscalers in 2026–27¹, underpinning multi-year revenue and cash-flow visibility. This will be complimented by over USD150bn capex by the top three Asian semiconductor companies in 2026, an increase of over 50% from 2025 levels².

Beyond technology, resource-rich emerging markets in Latin America control a significant share of the copper, lithium and rare earths required for decarbonisation and the electrification transport, reinforcing their strategic importance in the global energy transition. Select emerging markets, led by Korea and China, are pursuing corporate-governance reforms aimed at narrowing valuation discounts through higher payout ratios, rising buybacks and improved minority investor protection.

For investors, the combination of innovation, improving corporate-governance, and valuation discounts creates a differentiated investment opportunity set. This report examines three pillars of this thesis: innovation, renewable energy transition and corporate governance reform. Our conclusion focuses on the valuation upside for emerging markets in global portfolios.

Innovation

Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor producers are the leading manufacturers of chips that power the AI models which are disrupting industries ranging from professional services to software development. This dominance is the product of years of investment in core technologies.

In an average 1GW data centre, AI chips and high bandwidth memory account for 60% of the total cost, with the balance accounted for by infrastructure and power systems³. With hyperscalers planning USD1.3tn in AI investment during 2026/27, the revenue opportunity for Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor companies, which produce an estimated 80% of semiconductors used in AI servers, is significant. 

The world’s leading producer of AI chips is forecast to grow sales by 30% in 2026, following similar growth last year. The leading producer of high bandwidth memory is forecast to grow by 70%, following 47% revenue growth over the same periods⁴. Long term investment and innovation by these companies has positioned them as leaders in the semiconductor industry⁵.

Robotics

South Korea released its 4th Intelligent Robotics Master Plan in 2024 with a goal of turning robots into a “core growth engine and everyday infrastructure” by the end of the decade. Hyundai Motors subsidiary Boston Dynamics is well on the way to achieving this goal. Its three robot categories:  humanoid, quadruped and fixed handling robots will initially be deployed in its parent company factories, but the long-term goal is to offer Robots-As-A Service. Boston Dynamics’s humanoid Atlas robot is forecast to have 30,000 units in service by 2028 focusing on factory and logistics tasks.

Chinese companies are also rapidly rolling out humanoid robots focused on factory as well as elder care tasks. China is focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence as policy makers view humanoid robots with embedded intelligence as a strategic growth industry. China plans to bring its high volume, low cost manufacturing experience combined with its vast domestic market to turbo charge industry growth.

There is likely to be room for both China and Korea in the robotics industry given the forecast for the global installed base growing 10-15x by 2030⁶. Each are focusing on individual segments within the industry: humanoid and fixed handling in China and quadruped and fixed handling in Korea. Both plan to leverage domestic manufacturing and supportive regulatory policies, with a rapid feedback loop to maintain their leading edge.

Renewable energy transition

Emerging markets are the leading producers of raw materials including copper, lithium and rare earths which are central to the production of renewable energy and the electrification of transportation. Latin America’s share of global copper and lithium reserves are estimated to be 50% and 54% respectively⁷.

Lithium is the key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, a market where Chinese manufacturers control 70% of global production. Two leading Chinese firms dominate lithium ion electric vehicle batteries, combining high energy density with low manufacturing costs.

Rare earths, the processing of which China dominates, are central to the production of magnets used in wind turbines. In combination with solar panels, of which it is the leading low-cost producer, China plays a significant role in the renewable energy supply chain and has contributed meaningfully to global adoption trends. Rare earths and copper are also used in the production of consumer electronics, of which Asia is the dominant manufacturer.

The advanced technology and low cost of these renewable energy and transportation solutions are driving adoption at a rapid pace across the globe. While there are developed market substitutes for these for these products, the innovation and lower price of these products from emerging market companies is leading to faster adoption that otherwise would be the case.

Corporate reform

Emerging markets are pursuing corporate reforms in an effort to narrow the valuation discount experienced relative to developed markets. By one measure, price-to-earnings ratio, the gap in the Korean market has started to narrow as investors recognise the potential for these reforms to unlock shareholder value.

Korea started this process with its value-up program, encouraging companies to improve corporate governance, capital efficiency and shareholder returns. Shareholders are already benefiting from cumulative voting and the expansion of director fiduciary duties.

China and Thailand have also signalled their intention to pursue similar reforms with a view to closing their valuation discount with peers.

One of the factors behind the valuation discount of emerging markets relative to developed market peers over the past 15 years has been the steady increase in shares outstanding, relative to a contraction in developed markets.

Our research highlights in recent years, some emerging markets have reduced net issuance relative to historical levels. Net buybacks, defined as total buybacks minus share issuance in the market has improved in recent years and is approaching zero. This is led by Chinese technology companies which are using their surplus cash to buy back shares and return cash to shareholders. South Korean companies are also becoming more capital efficient, cancelling treasury shares, undertaking share buy-backs and raising dividend payouts ratios.